Why knowing AI won't save your job in the coming wave of layoffs
Companies are betting they'll reach higher productivity eventually. Workers are paying the price now.
As Amazon lays off 14,000 workers and Nvidia unveils more powerful AI systems, including chips to power autonomous vehicles, are humans redundant?
The big snip
You have probably read about Amazon laying off 14,000 corporate staffers, with cuts potentially affecting as many as 30,000, according to Reuters.
The latest reduction comes from Amazon's 350,000 corporate and tech employees, not warehouse workers. The company says layoffs will continue into next year.
Here's what I think is happening.
Bet on AI
You would have read about the incredible amount of money going into AI, which is fueling a boom (or bubble) of incredible proportions.
Why spend so much money? I think what Mark Zuckerberg shared at Meta's latest quarterly earnings call earlier today summed it up: they can't afford to miss AGI or superintelligence.
If AGI arrives soon, Meta will be well-positioned for a "generational paradigm shift and many large opportunities." If AGI takes longer, AI is still helping Meta make more money for its core business. And Meta can always "slow building new infrastructure for some period."
He said: "I think it's the right strategy to aggressively front-load building capacity so that way we're prepared for the most optimistic cases of AGI arriving sooner."
tldr; Until there's a crash, the spending will not stop.
Leaner workforces
What has it got to do with retrenchments then? For those directly involved in AI, reducing headcount helps free up more money to invest while staying profitable.
That's not all there is to it, though. AI is also directly influencing the notion of lean workforces, regardless of its current impact. The thinking: we will get to higher productivity, eventually.
Now, it's true that AI is opening doors to very profitable businesses with extremely small teams. Here's what I wrote about AI on Substack last month.
Will AI training help? Maybe
So what are we to do? Personally, I don't think being good in AI will make much of a difference. Certainly, those exceptional in AI are probably on safer ground, while those with little knowhow will be at the highest risk.
But just like just knowing how to use the computer won't keep you hired today, I don't believe "knowing AI" will help either.
Don't get me wrong, I do think it's much better to be versed in AI. But the massive scale at which jobs will be pared and the difficulty of assessing AI competency means few are actually safe.
What do you think?
