Plumbing won't save you from AI
Why popular advice for AI-displaced workers misses the realities of trade work.
Becoming a plumber won't save you from the coming of AI. The truth is, those dishing out this advice have never done these jobs before.
In today's UnfilteredFriday, let's look at how learning a trade is the new 'learn to code', and how it probably won't save white-collar workers.
Plumbing won't save you
Yesterday, Meta announced it will cut 10% of workers and not hire for another 6,000 open roles. If that is the benchmark being set by an extremely profitable firm, where does it leave the rest of us?
As AI roils job markets, an idea that has become popular is that going into a trade such as plumbing or electrical work could be the future for white-collar workers affected by AI. As noted by a piece on The Free Press, the ones doling out this advice include CEOs, billionaire TV stars, and well-intentioned university-educated parents. The problem? They have no idea what it is to work in the trades.
The short answer from reporter River Page, who actually went to two US technical schools to ask: these jobs are physically demanding, pay less than most tech jobs, and workers often retire earlier as they can no longer handle the strenuous demands. So probably not ideal for retrenched mid-life professionals with heavy financial commitments and who've spent most of their working lives behind a desk.
AI skills won't either
If trades aren't the answer, what about learning AI? That might not work either, depending on current roles, aptitude, and what one is actually doing with one's new AI skillset.
As I noted in Sunday's commentary, a small but growing group of people are going from 2x to 10x simply by leveraging AI in new ways. But the capabilities gained by these pioneers could well be built on shifting sands that erode under their feet. Case in point: I successfully replaced a paid set of APIs I was using with Claude Code.
I concluded: "Today's competitive edge is tomorrow's commodity. The moat you build with AI can be replicated by someone else with AI. So where does that leave any of us?"
